Dynamics of changes in air temperature and precipitation amounts in Kherson oblast in the context of climate change
Abstract
Purpose. Analysis of the current state of the air temperature regime and the income of precipitation in Kherson oblast of Ukraine, clarifying the tendencies of further changes in the climatic regime of the region, establishing possible risks for the production of crop products. Methods. Historical method for assessing meteorological indices (average annual air temperature and annual precipitation amounts) according to the data of Kherson Regional Hydrometeorological Center; statistical methods of Mann- Kendall and Sen’s slope for assessing trends in the dynamics of the studied meteorological indices and the formation of a forecast for the future period using the Winters’s method. Results. A clear reliable (at the 95% confidence level) trend towards an increase in the average annual air temperature and the amount of precipitation in the region was determined. It is predicted that the average annual air temperature in the period of 2020-2050 will increase to 11.99 °C, and the amount of precipitation might increase to 509.2 mm. A significant increase in air temperature, together with the unevenness and shower nature of precipitation, will lead to an increase in aridity in Kherson oblast, which will require the adoption of reclamation measures, as well as a revision of the main elements of the crops cultivation technology, namely, irrigation schedules and rates, sowing and harvesting dates, varietal and species composition of crops, plant protection systems against pests and diseases. Conclusions. Irrigation will become a prerequisite for the development of crop production, therefore, it is necessary to take measures to reconstruct previously built and build new irrigation systems in Kherson oblast to ensure food security in southern Ukraine, as well as to revise and modernize the existing agrotechnological recommendations for the major crops cultivated in the region.
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