ANALYSIS OF GLOBAL PRODUCTION TRENDS OF FAGOPYRUM ESCULENTUM, PANICUM MILIACEUM AND ORYZA SATIVA: SCIENTIFIC SUBSTANTIATION OF PRIORITIES FOR THE RESTORATION OF UKRAINE’S CEREAL SUBCOMPLEX UNDER CLIMATE AND SECURITY CHALLENGES
Abstract
Purpose. The purpose of the study is to analyze globaltrends in cereal crop production and to identify prioritiesfor the restoration of Ukraine’s cereal subcomplex under conditions of military challenges, climate change, andtransformation of the agricultural market. Particular attentionis paid to assessing the dynamics of production, harvestedareas, yield levels, and the impact of climatic factorson crop productivity.Methods. The information base included data fromFAOSTAT, the State Statistics Service of Ukraine, theUkrainian Grain Association, Statista, APK-Inform, andscientific publications. The research employed system-analytical,comparative, statistical, and graphical methods.Correlation analysis based on Pearson coefficients wasused to assess the influence of climatic factors, using yielddata for 2000–2025 and climate reanalysis materials.Results. A growing trend in global rice productionwas identified, reaching 523.7 million tons in 2025. A shiftin millet production centers toward African countries wasobserved, along with China’s dominance in buckwheat andrice production. In Ukraine, a reduction in cultivated areasand destabilization of production were recorded due to militaryactions, destruction of irrigation infrastructure, climatechange, and logistical constraints. In 2025, buckwheatproduction declined to 82.3 thousand tons, which is 29.3%lower compared to the previous year. Correlation analysisconfirmed a direct relationship between precipitation andyield (r = 0.58–0.72) and a negative impact of rising temperatureson crop productivity (r = –0.38 to –0.51).Conclusions. The study substantiates the need toadapt international experience to Ukrainian conditions.Key post-war recovery priorities include the introduction ofadaptive varieties, development of modern irrigation systems,restoration of seed production, and strengthening ofstate support for the sector.
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